What do you BELIEVE?

I was raised in the evil cult known as Jehovah's Witnesses.  I can't say Jehovah's Witnesses without saying evil cult in the same sentence.  The proof is in the pudding.  After spending close to four decades in the cult, I can tell you a little bit about it.  And I see where I have gone and how I have prospered in the >15 years since I left, and I can see where the people I left behind have gone, which is nowhere.

But I don't want to drag you down with negativity and puke all over you with a "bad experience."  I have tried to look objectively at my experience and have moved on with my life.  Dwelling on being a victim is not how I want to live my life.  But my experience has given me a different perspective on how I view the world and I have tried to understand how I can use that perspective to my advantage.

While working as a night manager at a towing company several years ago, a young man about 20 years old worked as a dispatcher.  There were some busy times but there was also slow times where we could talk about everything.  He was a very bright guy and had some interesting insights.

He recommended a book which I read called, "Losing Faith In Faith."  The author had lived his early life as a pentacostal, had preached in the park as a teenager, and finally ended up writing over 100 spiritual songs and traveled the world spreading his music.  He claimed that he had more copyrights on christian songs than anybody else in the world.  But things changed and he eventually became an atheist, started an atheist organization, and even appeared on Oprah.

We had a similar experience in that we were misled by other men's thoughts, believed what we were told by these men, and then acted according to our beliefs.  We subsequently found out that what we were told and believed in was not true and not a successful, fulfilling way to live.

His story was fascinating, but he made a point that I have never heard from anyone else in my 55 years on the planet.  Once heard, the point seems so basic that I have wondered why it isn't common knowledge.  It has affected how I look at the world and how I make decisions.  The point is this:

BELIEVING is different than KNOWING.  You BELIEVE what cannot be proven.  If you KNOW something, BELIEF is not necessary.

For instance, I don't have to BELIEVE that the sun will rise in the eastern sky tomorrow.  (OK, the earth is actually turning to eventually expose the sun.  Cut me some slack here).  I KNOW the sun will rise based on physics and my minimal understanding of the cosmos.  I don't have to BELIEVE that if I jump off the roof of my house that I will fall to the patio.  I KNOW it, and if you don't you have a problem with physics and reality.

The reason that this is important is because people routinely confuse BELIEVING with KNOWING.  Religion can't exist without BELIEVING.  You have to have FAITH because you cannot prove what you BELIEVE.  FAITH is not necessary if you KNOW.  But people act as if their BELIEF is actually a fact that they KNOW to be true.

For instance, BELIEVING in a god is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.  Millions of people also BELIEVE in extraterrestrials, astrology, water witching, fate, flat-earth theories, chupacabras, spilling salt, bad luck, black cats, walking under a ladder, broken mirrors, stepping on cracks, Friday the 13th, women on ships being bad luck...the list is endless.   They BELIEVE that somehow we can run debts in the trillions of dollars and politicians will find a way out, that we will "innovate" and still have a sound economy, while having zero knowledge about money and how economies work.  But that is another blog.

Since the BELIEF is elevated to the status of KNOWING, people who are Jehovah's Witnesses sacrifice their entire life to march door to door selling pamphlets and trying to save the world.  I would estimate that the high school drop out rate in that religion is 90% based on what I saw over several decades.  Why get a high school diploma if Armageddon is coming next week?  While the cult officially says you should stay in at least long enough to get a diploma, dropping out is not looked down upon or condemned and is generally even considered a positive step because now you can spend more time saving people.  Oh yeah, and don't forget to take a good stack of Watchtowers with you while you are saving them.

After reading this book, I have basically assumed the attitude that I don't BELIEVE in anything.  I will get arguments about this statement because there is more than one definition to the word BELIEVE.  I do have convictions, and you must have some trust that the other person will stop their car at the red light, but what I mean is I see no gain or logic in BELIEVING in anything, a religion, or in other words, what another man tells me is true,  philosophy, or whatever.  I might even think something is likely, but I realize the important fact that I do not KNOW it to be a fact.  Odds are one thing, physics is another.

An example is the argument between evolution and creation.  In my mind, both are theories and require faith since neither are provable.  Therefore, I choose not to believe either theory.  I don't have enough information.  Maybe there is a third theory!  I really don't have to KNOW the answer to live a happy and prosperous life so I don't worry about it.  If I have to BELIEVE something, then pardon me, where is the exit?  If you choose to BELIEVE then I say, right on!  BELIEVE to your heart's content.  I sincerely hope it works out well for you.  Just don't be puzzled at my lack of BELIEF.  My decision is based on logic.  Your decision is based on FAITH because it is not provable.  (To quote one of my favorite musicians, Warren Zevon, in Desperados Under The Eaves, "And if California slides into the ocean, Like the mystics and statistics say it will, I predict this motel will be standing, Until I pay my bill.")

So I thought I would share this simple yet powerful observation with you today.  If you look at the differences between BELIEVING and KNOWING in your life experience, I'm sure you can see examples where people have made bad decisions, possibly even yourself.  Or maybe I am all wet!  If my position is not logical, leave me a comment.  I remain open to all suggestions to improve my life.  I only know that my life is orders of magnitude better since I stopped BELIEVING.  The proof is in the pudding, no?  For some reason the pudding has all the answers.

Glozell

While checking out videos on YouTube the other day, quite by accident I ran across Glozell.  Glozell is a comedian who has over 1000 videos on YouTube.  I watched a couple and then got hooked.  Some of her videos have millions of hits!  You can find her blog at http://glozelllovesjayleno.blogspot.com/.

Check it out and see what you think.  I think she is a riot!

Fascinating Article

I could go on about this article but I believe I will let you decide for yourself.  This is a report by the Bank of International Settlements regarding the events during the 1930s.  The comparison between then and now is striking.  Filled with bank bailouts, devaluation of currencies, and massive interest in gold, it appears we are still early in the ongoing crash.  Reprinted from a year ago, the information is even more timely.

Thanks to www.zerohedge.com from bringing us news we can use.  An absolute must read.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/first-great-depression-blow-blow-bis-and-how-it-mirrors-our-ongoing-second-great-depression-0

Republican Debate

I have been doing without TV for a month now and am adjusting quite well.  It has freed up time to go for a bike ride, play the bass guitar, read, cook, etc.  I have missed it a few times but overall I am enjoying the experience.

I gladly skipped the Republican debate tonight but I searched YouTube and of course some nice fellow updated all of the Ron Paul segments.  Who needs cable TV, especially when you have the internet and can watch Netflix with no commercials?

YouTube Videos

Why is it that many of my favorite videos on YouTube have only 48 hits?  Check out this one by The Stems, a band from Perth, Australia.  I can't stop playing it on the bass.

Folks, This Is Not A New Game We Are Playing

"All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America

arise not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation,
nor from want of honor or virtue, so much as downright ignorance
of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." 

John Adams in a letter to Thomas Jefferson, 1787

 

Latest Observations

• 2011-05: 2588.116
• 2011-04: 2523.317
• 2011-03: 2418.204
• 2011-02: 2233.350
• 2011-01: 2065.942 

The quote by Adams and the latest chart of the Adjusted Monetary Base are submitted without comment.  Is any needed?

I will, however, leave with a few rhetorical questions:  How can you not buy all the gold and silver you can in this environment?  Aren't ten years in a row of gains enough for you?  Do you seriously believe that the government will rein in spending?  Is a trillion and a half dollar annual deficit not a big number to you?

Just sayin'.

The Danger of Living on Bread and Circuses: Alice Schroeder

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-02/the-danger-of-living-on-bread-and-circuses-alice-schroeder.html


Rome in the first two centuries A.D. faced a yawning gulf between rich and poor. The mighty empire built on tribute reached its geographic limits. Its economy created few exportable goods. Slaves acquired by conquest built most of its bridges, roads and aqueducts and took jobs in farming, mining and construction. As this cheaper labor replaced Roman citizens, idle, unemployed, hungry people filled the capital.

The Caesars created make-work and part-time jobs, subsidized housing and doled out grain. Even more, they found, was needed. “A people that yawns is ripe for revolt,” wrote Jerome Carcopino in “Daily Life in Ancient Rome.”

The emperors added holidays until, eventually, the Romans spent half their days attending gladiator games, public executions and chariot races. Disgusted, the satirist Juvenal accused his fellow citizens of selling out for bribes of “bread and circuses.” The Romans did nothing to prove him wrong, until two centuries later the empire was divided forever and Rome was sacked by Visigoths.

The complicated causes of Rome’s decline have long fascinated historians, and provide a lens through which to examine the vulnerability of other dominant cultures. Americans’ addiction to entertainment has been compared to the circuses of ancient Rome. We can, and do, spend much of our free time watching dreck on TV like “Half Pint Brawlers,” about a company of self-styled “midget wrestlers” who attack each other with staple guns and broken bottles. In fact, in 2009, people over age 15 spent an average of 58 percent of their leisure time watching television, playing games and using the Internet -- an increase of 16 percent from 2003.

Digital Age

When entertainment dominates a society, it changes more than the culture; it also reshapes the economy. You can see that circuses are where the money is from the rise of digital entertainment, which has steered enormous amounts of discretionary income toward digital content and the devices that run it: laptops, televisions, gaming consoles, smart phones. In the decade leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, the only major industry other than health care that consistently showed strong real growth was consumer electronics.

Although hit hard by the recession, spending on digital media has now begun to rebound. The question is who benefits. We produce a lot of content, yet most of the devices it comes on are not made in the U.S.

Trade Imbalances

This exemplifies another problem that vexed the Romans and faces us today: Dominant economies tend to import more than they export, creating trade imbalances. The manufactured stuff of life, basic items such as food, clothing, cars, phones and furniture -- the bread, as opposed to the circuses -- costs less to buy if produced elsewhere than if made by a highly developed country’s own citizens. The result is a loss of jobs at home.

The conquest-driven Romans stand out in history as an extreme example. They brought home their imports, including slave labor, as plunder. This made the “bread” as cheap as it could be, and put the Romans themselves out of work.

We merely face a situation in which our labor costs, laws and regulations make U.S. business less competitive than that of other countries. In the 1990s, manufacturing workers went through a draconian loss of employment as work was sent offshore. The very thing that drove the jobs overseas made the bread cheap. During the high-growth bubble decade that culminated in 2008, the sales growth rates of basic consumer goods such as apparel, cars and sporting goods averaged less than 2 percent, so low as to be deflationary in real terms.

‘Service Economy’

Offsetting the loss of manufacturing work, the leverage- happy bubble era created so many jobs for bankers, hairstylists, airline ticket agents and home health aides that we began to describe ourselves as a “service economy.” But service businesses are vulnerable to the very same forces that drove the fat out of manufacturing. Take retailing. Since the 1990s, businesses that helped make the bread cheaper, such as superstores and warehouse clubs, were the only major category of retailers to show strong growth. Now these businesses, too, are severely pressured by more efficient online sellers, which are growing twice as fast as their offline counterparts.

The proportion of our total population that is currently working has fallen to 58.4 percent, the level it was in 1983, when far fewer women were in the job market.

Consumers and Workers

It’s true that this percentage should improve as the economy moves past the lingering effects of the financial crisis, but recovery won’t alter the fundamental trend. Structural forces are creating some very serious employment headwinds, faced especially by younger, less educated men.
Simply put, what has been good for American consumers hasn’t been good for workers.

Look at the big picture, and you also see how, unlike Rome, whose armies looted the lands they conquered, the underemployed U.S. must borrow money to pay for our bread and circuses. Rome was so rich that it took hundreds of years for the empire to crumble. We’re broke, which accelerates the day of reckoning. Reform of U.S. entitlement spending would buy us time, but wouldn’t fix the employment situation.

On a positive note, this bread-and-circuses economy does offer new opportunities. People who can help make things cheaper will do well. They can use digital technology to build businesses of truly global scale. Lastly, anyone who can satisfy the public’s lust for mind-rotting drivel has a viable career ahead in a growth industry.

Drowning a country in vicarious debauchery may be a lousy way to sustain a civilization. Still, there is something to be said for “Half Pint Brawlers” and its ilk. TV-watching keeps people at home, instead of marching in the streets.

(Alice Schroeder, author of “The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life” and a former managing director at Morgan Stanley, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)